Global Emissions Falling Too Slowly, Expert Urges Renewables Push, Fair Finance

By Umar Manzoor Shah
SRINAGAR, India & , Nov 6 2025 – A decade has passed since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, and a United Nations synthesis report released ahead of COP30 in Belém shows that “Parties are bending their combined emission curve further downwards, but still not quickly enough.”

The report, compiled by the UNFCCC secretariat, assesses 64 new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties between January 2024 and September 2025, covering about 30 percent of global emissions in 2019.

Bruce Douglas, an expert on renewable energy and electrification and CEO of the Global Renewables Alliance (GRA), in an exclusive interview with IPS, said that it is encouraging to see the momentum in the latest NDCs and government targets, which are more ambitious and implementable than previous rounds.

“However, we’re seeing even greater acceleration in the real economy, where renewables hit a record 582 GW of new capacity last year, so governments need to catch up with private sector ambition. But let’s be clear: to have a chance of achieving the tripling renewable energy goal and 1.5°C pathway, the world needs to add roughly 1,100 GW every year to 2030. The direction is right, but the pace must double. We need particular focus in emerging economies, where finance still isn’t flowing at anywhere near the scale required.”

Bruce Douglas, CEO of the Global Renewables Alliance (GRA). Credit: GRA

Douglas added that there is a real appetite in countries around the world to decarbonize at pace, but most developing country NDCs are conditional on financing, so this is the crucial challenge to address.

He said that renewable energy projects are also being held back by predictable bottlenecks—slow permitting, grid constraints, and the high cost of capital in emerging markets.

“These are fixable. We know the solutions: faster permitting, predictable auctions, and investment in grids and storage. But above all, we need access to affordable finance. Investors are ready—governments and MDBs must create the certainty to unlock it,” Douglas said.

A Decade of Progress—But Not Enough

Ten years after Paris, the report acknowledges “new indications of real and increasing progress on action to address climate change through national efforts underpinned by global cooperation.” According to the executive summary, Parties are setting out new national climate targets and plans to achieve them that differ in pace and scale from any that have come before. However, while “Parties are bending their combined emission curve further downwards, they are still not doing it quickly enough,” the report warns.

The urgency for accelerated action is clear.

“It remains evident that major acceleration is still needed in terms of delivering faster and deeper emission reductions and ensuring that the vast benefits of strong climate action reach all countries and peoples,” the summary states.

“We have seen extraordinary renewable growth over the past two decades, and markets are often moving faster than governments, but the gap between targets and deployment continues to grow. We no longer have time for pledges; now is the time for progress. What matters most is visibility: real project pipelines, clear timelines, and bankable frameworks that turn ambition into megawatts. That’s what COP30 should deliver—a clear signal that we are in the era of implementation,” Douglas said.

Economy-Wide Targets, Alignment with Global Stocktake

A notable improvement in the new NDCs is their increased comprehensiveness. The report highlights, “The new NDCs show a progression in terms of quality, credibility and economic coverage, with 89 percent of Parties communicating economy-wide targets (compared with 81 percent in their previous NDCs).”

The parties have also responded to the outcomes of the first global stocktake (GST).

“Eighty eight percent of Parties indicated that their NDCs were informed by the outcomes of the GST and 80 per cent specifying how.” This signals an increasing willingness to align national climate planning with global science and ambition.

Douglas said that the first Global Stocktake was a wake-up call—and it worked to catalyze the focus on the 3x renewables target.

“Now COP30 must translate that momentum into measurable delivery: reaffirming the goal to triple renewables, delivering major finance signals for grids and storage and setting ambitious short-term renewable goals in the next NDC round.”

Projected range of greenhouse gas emission levels for the Parties that have submitted 2035 targets according to their new nationally determined contributions, with or without Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULCF). Credit: UN Climate Change

Emissions on a Downward Trajectory—But Short of 1.5°C

The report analyzes the projected impact of these NDCs on greenhouse gas emissions. “Collectively, the new NDCs show a reduction in projected emissions of 17 (11–24) percent below the 2019 level,” it finds. Full implementation of all new NDCs, including conditional elements, “is estimated to bring the total GHG emission level of the relevant group of Parties down to 12.3 (12.0–12.7) Gt CO₂ eq by 2035, which would be 19–24 percent below the 2019 level.”

The report cautions, however, that “the scale of the total emission reduction expected to be achieved by the group of Parties… falls short of what is necessary according to the IPCC ranges.” According to the latest IPCC synthesis, “GHG emission reductions will have to be reduced by 60 (49–77) percent by 2035 relative to the 2019 level” to limit warming to 1.5°C.

Holistic Approaches and Sectoral Progress

The report identifies a “whole-of-economy, whole-of-society approach” as “an increasingly core pillar of ensuring economic stability and growth, jobs, health, and energy security and affordability, among many other policy imperatives, in countries.”

Mitigation and adaptation are increasingly integrated.

“All NDCs go beyond mitigation to include elements, inter alia, on adaptation, finance, technology transfer, capacity-building and addressing loss and damage, reflecting the comprehensive scope of the Paris Agreement.

Adaptation is more prominent than ever, with “73 percent of the new NDCs including an adaptation component.”

Douglas said that the power sector is leading the charge—solar is on track; what is needed is to rapidly accelerate wind, geothermal, hydropower, grids, and storage to keep up.

He said that electrifying transport, heating and harder-to-abate industry sectors are next in line.

“We’re seeing promising clean-industry pilots and early electrification, but they need clear policy frameworks to scale. Every sector must move faster: we need to electrify everything that can be electrified—with renewable energy as the foundation.”

Just Transition and Social Inclusion

The concept of just transition is gaining ground.

“A total of 70 percent of Parties considered just transition in preparing their new NDCs and the majority of those Parties plan to integrate consideration of just transition into NDC implementation,” the report notes. “Parties contextualized just transition as helping to ensure that the shift to low-carbon, climate-resilient economies does not exacerbate existing or create new inequalities in societies, thus enabling climate action that is socially inclusive and economically empowering.”

Forests, Oceans, and Nature-Based Solutions

Protecting natural sinks remains a major topic. “Parties have integrated forest measures into economy-wide mitigation targets and mentioned forest-specific contributions and indicators in their new NDCs.” The synthesis highlights “international collaboration and REDD+ results-based payments as keys to mitigation in the forest sector, while noting synergies with achieving adaptation and biodiversity objectives.”

Ocean-based climate action is also rising. “Parties reported a significant increase in ocean-based climate action compared with the previous NDCs, with 78 percent of Parties including in the new NDCs at least one explicit reference to the ocean—an increase of 39 percent.”

Finance, Technology, and Capacity-Building: The Implementation Challenge

Finance remains a central challenge to ambition.

“A total of 88 percent of Parties provided information on the finance required to implement activities in line with their NDCs, with 75 percent characterizing finance in terms of support needed,” the report notes. Parties reported “a total cost in the range of USD 1,970.8–1,975.0 billion in aggregate… comprising USD 1,073.88–1,074.00 billion identified as support needed from international sources.”

Technology and capacity-building are also highlighted as key enablers. “A total of 97 percent of Parties provided information on technology development and transfer… 84 percent of Parties referenced capacity-building in varying detail, with 31 percent of those Parties discussing it in sections on means of implementation or capacity-building.”

Inclusion of Gender, Youth, and Indigenous Peoples

The new NDCs reflect a growing focus on social inclusion and empowerment. “Gender integration into NDCs is advancing, with Parties increasingly considering gender to promote inclusive and effective climate action. In their new NDCs, 89 percent of Parties provided information related to gender and 80 percent affirmed that they will take gender into account in implementing the NDCs.”

The report further notes, “It is the first time that a section on children and youth has featured in the NDC synthesis report. A total of 88 percent of Parties in their new NDCs… included information, generally more clearly and in more detail than previously, reflecting a stronger commitment to meaningful inclusion, on how children and youth have been or will be considered in NDC development and implementation.”

Similarly, “A total of 72 percent of Parties reported an increased focus on the vital role of Indigenous Peoples and local communities in climate adaptation and mitigation, compared with 66 percent previously.”

International Cooperation and Voluntary Efforts

The synthesis report highlights the indispensability of international cooperation. “International cooperation was emphasized as critical for mobilizing resources and bridging the gap between NDC ambition and implementation by 97 percent of Parties.” The report reads further, “Parties described their engagement with international partners to promote effective and inclusive climate action through voluntary cooperation initiatives, regional collaboration and sectoral activities such as energy transition.”

Despite progress, the report issues a warning.

“With their GHG emissions in 2035 on average estimated to be 17 (11–24) percent below their 2019 level… the scale of the total emission reduction expected to be achieved by the group of Parties… falls short of what is necessary according to the IPCC ranges.” “Major acceleration is still needed in terms of delivering faster and deeper emission reductions and ensuring that the vast benefits of strong climate action reach all countries and peoples.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

This feature is published with the support of Open Society Foundations.

Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau
!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:’https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);  

Excerpt:

Bruce Douglas, CEO of the Global Renewables Alliance, says the pace at which the Parties to the Paris Agreement are lowering their combined emissions must double, with a particular focus on emerging economies.